Vst

VST Help Page

About

VST = Very Short Term and is Ansergy's frequently updated 21-day forecast. The model updates the forecast every 30 minutes and incorporates all known fundamentals in each run. In addition, VST runs 9 scenarios around a base case including tests on temperature, outages, demand, and supply components.

Views

A view is a way to control what is displayed in the columns - similar to pivot tables. There are four views:

• Hub View - Columns are populated by hubs with dates and items available as filters; this view is useful for This view is useful for plotting one hub against another when a single item is selected.
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• Item View - Items are columns with dates, hubs, and cases available as filters and records flowing down. The Item View is useful for charting two or more items against each other. For example, plotting hydro against demand, or demand against heat rates. This also allows you to view items as a time series while viewing a table.
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• Period View - Periods are columns while hubs and items flow down. This view is useful when used to determine changes across time. Note that this view does not plot well.
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• Case - The case view shows each of the 9 Ansergy determined cases (expanded upon below) as columns while records are separated by hub and item. It may be most useful to filter to one specific item if you desire to compare changes by case by hub.
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Cases

caseid	case	Description
1	T0	Base Case
2	T-5NW	Subtract 5 degrees from all Northwest Cities
3	T+5NW	Add 5 degrees from all Northwest Cities
4	T-5CA	Subtract 5 degrees from all Calif Cities
5	T+5CA	Add 5 degrees from all Calif Cities
6	ND-1000BPAT	Adjust BPAT net demand by -1000 MW
7	ND+1000BPAT	Adjust BPAT net demand by +1000 MW
8	ND-1000ISO	Adjust PGAE and SCE net demand by -1000 MW
9	ND+1000ISO	Adjust PGAE and SCE net demand by +1000 MW

Backcasts

Each of the 48 forecast locations (hubs) are backcasted to either an LMP or a virtual price index. Backcasts are available by clicking the Backcast button.

Topology

This map of the Western United States depicts what hubs and BA are forecasted by Ansergy through VST.